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• Tomasz

  78fHere’s an interesting bit from Morningstar today . the fregius tell the story. Homebuilders: The Current SituationTo gauge the outlook for the homebuilding industry, it’s helpful to examine the recent past, as its excesses are likely to reverberate for years. The year 2005 culminated a multiyear boom with 1.3 million single-family home sales. At 1.04% of total households, that year’s sales were the highest percentage in the history of the series going back to 1965. Sales topped 1% of households only one time before 1977 s peak of 820,000. Production bottomed at 413,000 units five years later, indicating that 2006 s 17% drop is just the beginning.Yes folks, homebuilders are suffering the aftermath of a bubble, complete with a glut of unsold homes and the beginnings of what’s likely to be a severe credit contraction. True, demographic trends are likely to increase demand over the next decade or so. Baby boomers are entering prime second-home-buying age, echo boomers are maturing, and immigration is strong. But these factors are likely to be overwhelmed for the next few years as the industry works off prior excesses. It’s likely that 2005 set the high-water mark for new home sales for several years hence. So what is a reasonable rate of new home sales going forward? Let’s start with the headwinds. There were over 2.1 million vacant homes for sale as of the fourth quarter of 2006, a full 2.7% of all owner-occupied homes. This is unprecedented, as the highest annual vacancy rate recorded prior to this cycle was 1.8% in 1985. If one assumes an equilibrium rate of about 1.5% (the average going back to 1965), there’s roughly 900,000 extra empty homes waiting for buyers. Combine this with an oversupply of occupied homes for sale, and we think there are more than 1 million extra units out there. ffa

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